Democrats favored to seize House as Trump's approval plummets
Historical trends and current polls suggest the Republican Party will lose seats in the upcoming midterms, with the Senate race remaining a close contest.
By Yasmin Nasser ·
The president’s party faces a steep climb in the upcoming midterms, with Democrats favored to take control of the House and potentially the Senate. This shift comes as President Trump’s approval ratings hit record lows and voters cite rising prices as the primary driver of their dissatisfaction.
Trump was elected in 2024 with a mandate to lower costs, but inflation has outpaced wages since he took office. A recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that 38% of respondents said their economic situations have worsened, while only 15% reported improvement. The war with Iran and new tariffs have directly increased prices on energy and goods, deepening the divide between wealthy investors and average Americans.
History suggests the Republicans will struggle. Since World War II, the president’s party has gained House seats in a midterm election only twice. When a president’s approval rating falls below 50%, their party has lost an average of 35 seats. Trump has acknowledged this trend at campaign events. Democrats have already overperformed in 2025 off-year elections and special races, building momentum for November.
Structural challenges remain for the Democrats. The Cook Political Report identifies about 30 fewer competitive districts this year than in 2018, when Democrats won a net gain of more than 40 House seats. Mid-decade redistricting gave Republicans an estimated 8-seat advantage. Voting patterns among Latinos in South Texas could further alter these margins.
Trump has been deployed to red states to boost Republican turnout. Without strong participation in those areas, a small Democratic Senate gain could expand to six or seven seats. Republicans privately view Trump as a double-edged sword, noting that he is essential for mobilizing the base but toxic to swing voters. Recent ad campaigns from Republican candidates have largely dropped mentions of the president, a stark contrast to the primary season.
Voters are largely confident in the integrity of the election, but a quarter of Republicans said their candidate likely should not accept the results if the race is close. Trump has already laid the groundwork for claims of rigged elections, a pattern he has followed after previous losses. If Democrats do not win the House, it would represent a major polling error for this century.
Most states and districts will be called by election night, but key Senate races may remain undecided for days or weeks. The 2028 presidential cycle begins almost immediately after the midterms, with candidates expected to announce their bids as early as January or February.
