1 in 10 Israelis Are New Voters Who Could Decide 12 Knesset Seats

Israelis go to the polls on Tuesday, Oct. 27, in a general election where 640,000 first-time voters may determine the fate of 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) estimates that citizens aged 18 to 22 constitute nearly 10% of the total electorate, giving them a decisive influence on the final composition of the government.

The IDI co-sponsored a recent event in Tel Aviv with the Yigal Allon Center to engage these new citizens. Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the IDI, noted that Israel has a high birth rate and a young demographic profile. "If their turnout is high, as our research suggests, first-time voters will make a difference," Hoffman said.

Surveys indicate a high likelihood of participation among this group. An IDI survey from May found that 80% to 95% of prospective first-time Jewish and Arab voters said they would definitely or probably vote. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents stated they intended to vote. A separate poll by Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young respondents were certain to vote, with another 19% likely to participate.

Economic pressure and national security dominate the concerns of these young voters. Hoffman attributed this focus to their formative years, which included the COVID-19 pandemic, judicial reform protests, and the events of Oct. 7. An N12 poll conducted on Sept. 23 found that 74% of young people describe their views as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identify as left-wing or center-left. In that same poll, 16% indicated they would vote for Yashar, the party led by Gadi Eisenkot, and 14% for Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud.

Individual voters reflect a wide range of priorities. Yael Chernyvsky, 18, of Ramat Hasharon, is in an army preparation program in the Negev and plans to support the opposition "change bloc." She favors the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, or Yashar. Conversely, Omer Gross of Jerusalem, currently in an army-prep program in the Golan, supports the Religious Zionist party led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin, citing the need for a secure Israel despite disagreements over Gaza policy.

Other voters focus on specific policy gaps. Tomer Shiloh, 18, of Herziliyah, wants the next government to mandate military service for ultra-Orthodox men and reduce living costs. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, of Shef-Amra, seeks an Arab party that will address resource gaps and crime in Arab communities. A 22-year-old reservist, identified as Sgt. M, prioritizes universal service but is voting for the Democrats primarily on economic grounds, citing the cost of tuition and housing.