Israeli voters pick a Knesset split that leaves both blocs short of a majority

Polls opened across Israel on Tuesday morning for the election of the next Knesset. The race pits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his current coalition against an opposition bloc seeking to replace him. This is the first national vote since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023.

Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party leads recent polling. It projects 22 seats, surpassing Netanyahu's Likud and Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad. However, no single bloc appears capable of winning the 61 seats required for a majority.

A Channel 12 poll released on Friday projects the opposition bloc at 56 seats. Netanyahu's bloc is projected at 50 seats. Arab parties are expected to win 16 seats combined. Most opposition leaders have pledged not to form a government with Arab parties, citing the context of the October 7 attacks.

Likud is projected to win 19 seats, a drop from the 32 it holds in the outgoing Knesset. B'Yachad is projected to receive 14 seats. The gap between the two major blocs and the majority threshold creates uncertainty about the post-election coalition negotiations.

Voting began at 7:00 a.m. Exit polls are scheduled for release at 10:00 p.m. to provide preliminary projections. Official results will be finalized in the coming days after the full vote count. Voting at diplomatic missions abroad ended on October 16, and military base voting began last week.

Key issues for voters include the Israel Defense Forces manpower crisis after three years of war. The debate over conscription for haredi (ultra-Orthodox) men is also central. Many voters are focused on calls for a state commission of inquiry into government failures leading up to the October 7 attack.

Traditional issues, such as the establishment of a Palestinian state, have moved to the background. Most parties now agree against Palestinian statehood. The fate of Netanyahu, who has led the country for 19 non-consecutive years, is a major factor. The opposition argues he must be held accountable for the attacks and no longer serve as prime minister.

The electoral threshold is set at 3.25% of valid votes. The number of votes needed to clear this bar depends on voter turnout. The Taub Center estimates that at a 70% turnout, similar to 2022, a party needs 165,635 votes to enter the Knesset. Higher turnout increases the required vote count, making it harder for smaller parties to survive.

Parties such as Ofer Winter's People of Israel and Yoaz Hendel's the Reservists-Economics are fighting to clear the threshold. Their results will affect the ability of both major blocs to form coalitions. Police have prepared for potential public order issues, especially after exit polls release. Approximately 20,000 officers and volunteers will be deployed nationwide to protect polling stations and maintain safety.