Paul LePage poised to flip Maine's 2nd Congressional District

Former Governor Paul LePage is on the verge of securing victory in Maine's 2nd Congressional District. He appears set to become the state's only Republican member of the U.S. House following Tuesday's election. This potential win stands in sharp contrast to the performance of other Republican candidates across the state ballot.

LePage trails State Auditor Matt Dunlap by approximately 1,000 votes in the early returns for the district. However, projections indicate that the remaining uncounted votes will reverse this deficit. Analysts from the Bangor Daily News assess the race as likely to go to LePage. Decision Desk HQ, the national partner for those analyses, had not issued a final call as of 3 a.m. Wednesday. They had previously rated the contest a toss-up before the polls closed on Tuesday.

An estimated 57,000 votes remained to be tallied across 111 towns as of early Wednesday morning. For Dunlap to maintain his lead, those remaining towns would need to support LePage by no more than about two points. Historical data suggests this scenario is improbable. In the 2024 election, these specific towns favored Republican candidates by roughly nine points. Current trends for 2026 indicate these areas are leaning even more heavily toward the Republican party.

Models based on towns already reporting expect the outstanding jurisdictions to favor LePage by about 13 points. At this pace, LePage would accumulate a net gain of approximately 7,700 votes. This would result in a final victory margin of roughly 6,700 votes. Even under the most conservative estimates in the model, LePage would net about 5,800 votes. That figure is more than five times the margin required to overcome his current deficit.

Farmington represents Dunlap's strongest remaining area. It is the only large Democratic-leaning town still awaiting final counts, and it is expected to provide him with about 740 net votes. In contrast, the towns of Sabattus, Oxford, and Pittsfield are projected to add about 1,100 net votes for LePage. The majority of LePage's projected margin stems from approximately 105 small, rural towns that have not yet reported results.

Blank ballots and 149 write-ins could potentially keep the winner below the majority threshold. This might trigger a ranked-choice count, similar to the process in 2024. The Bangor Daily News retains the ability to call the race if these outstanding ballots cannot alter the final outcome. A victory for LePage would flip a seat that Democrats have held since 2018. It would make him the only Republican from New England serving in the U.S. House.