Ukraine says Russian drones sank four ships near Bulgaria

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the European Council on October 16 that the war will cost 155 billion euros next year and that Europe must provide at least 70 billion euros in additional support. This demand comes as European nations report a sharp increase in Russian military activity on the continent.

In two separate incidents in October, Ukraine accused Russia of sinking four cargo ships off the coast of Bulgaria. The vessels were operating just outside Bulgarian territorial waters, which are part of the European Union and NATO. Kyiv stated that Russia used aerial and surface drones in these attacks, signaling that grain export routes through NATO waters are under threat.

European officials have also documented Russian fighter planes entering Polish, Lithuanian, and Estonian airspace. Suspected Russian drones have been intercepted over Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states. Latvia’s ambassador to Greece, Ieva Cesniece, described incidents where masked individuals on the Belarusian side of the border pushed groups of migrants into Latvia. She said these individuals threatened Latvian border guards and that masked figures later crossed into Latvian territory to damage border infrastructure and remove surveillance equipment.

Cesniece linked these actions to the war in Ukraine, stating that Russia tests European resilience to weaken NATO and EU support for Kyiv. She noted, “The weaker Russia appears in Ukraine, the more it tests our resilience.”

In August, the European Commission verified that Russia was responsible for an operation that damaged cargo planes at Germany’s Leipzig/Halle Airport. Since then, warnings of further escalation have increased. In September, Czech spy chief Michal Koudelka warned that Russia might attempt a military attack on a NATO member in months. Following this, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova declared that European defense industries supplying Ukraine were legitimate targets.

This month, representatives of five EU intelligence agencies informed the Financial Times that Russia was seeking to target European defense executives and their supply chains. Reports also surfaced that Russia planted incendiary devices in Munich offices of defense firms Rohde & Schwarz and Helsing. EU security officials indicated that Russia is planning to move beyond messaging and claim lives on European soil.

Olena Tregub, cofounder of Ukraine’s Independent Anti-Corruption Commission, said Europe has not done enough to disrupt the financing and logistics of these operations. She stated, “I’m not sure Russia currently sees those costs as sufficiently high.” Tregub argued that deterrence requires convincing Moscow that continuing these operations will become too costly.

Ukrainian adviser Oleksandr Danylyuk of the Royal United Services Institute said that Russians are currently limited only by their capabilities because there is no reaction from Europe. He suggested that NATO should place more forward troops in the Baltic states to create deterrence by denial. He also proposed increasing support for Ukraine by 10 to 20 percent each time Russian intelligence operations are detected in Europe.

Zelenskyy asked journalists on October 16 where Putin would stop if he is currently testing drones against European countries. He said Europe does not talk loudly about escalation yet but will when ballistic and cruise missiles and thousands of drones are involved. He added that Ukraine could double or triple drone production with the necessary funding to put more pressure on Russia.