No. 1 Florida faces No. 14 Miami in season's first ranked clash
The in-state rivals meet Monday in Tampa, with Florida favored by 5.5 points in the 2026 Orion180 Tipoff Classic.
By Yasmin Nasser ·
The first matchup between two ranked teams in the 2026-27 men's college basketball season occurs Monday when the No. 1 Florida Gators host the No. 14 Miami Hurricanes. The in-state rivals will play their 71st game against each other at the 2026 Orion180 Tipoff Classic, a neutral site contest scheduled for 6 p.m. ET at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa.
Florida enters the game as the top seed in the AP Poll for the second time in program history. The Gators return much of the core roster that secured the national title in 2025. They finished last season with a 27-8 record. Miami, under first-year head coach Jai Lucas, posted a 26-9 mark and ended the previous campaign ranked 24th in the final AP standings.
The two teams have a recent history of low-scoring affairs in this series. Each of their last eight meetings has finished with fewer than 150 combined points. Their most recent contest in November 2025 resulted in exactly 150 total points, a figure well below the 171.5 line listed at the time. Florida defeated Miami in that neutral site game last year.
Betting markets currently list Florida as 5.5-point favorites. The over/under total for the game is set at 160.5 points. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each college basketball game 10,000 times, has analyzed these factors. The model projects the teams to combine for 158 points, predicting the under will hit in 58% of its simulations.
The model’s prediction aligns with recent trends for both programs. The under connected in 67% of Miami games (8-4) where the Hurricanes were underdogs last year. For Florida, the total was not reached in 60% of regular season games (18-12-1). The Gators possessed the No. 2 scoring defense in the SEC a year ago, while the Hurricanes ranked fourth in the ACC in points allowed per game.
The model is currently on an 11-1 run regarding its top-rated over/under picks dating back to 2025. It holds a 28-22 record on its top-rated side picks over the same period. The simulation suggests one side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of scenarios, though the specific pick is available through the SportsLine platform.
Tipoff is scheduled for Monday evening in Tampa. The outcome will set the tone for the rest of the season for both the national champion and the ACC contender.
