Eisenkot leads Netanyahu in Israeli cabinet mandate race

Gadi Eisenkot now holds the upper hand in the race to form a new Israeli government. The former general and leader of the Yashar party secured recommendations from 67 members of the Knesset, outpacing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who gathered support from 46 lawmakers. President Isaac Herzog will now determine who receives the formal mandate to build a cabinet.

The margin of victory widened in the mid-afternoon when the Joint List announced it would back Eisenkot. Prior to this move, the group had only indicated it might abstain. This recommendation was a critical factor in shifting the balance of power away from the incumbent prime minister.

United Torah Judaism played a decisive role in the outcome. The ultra-Orthodox party refused to recommend Netanyahu for the premiership. Instead, it signaled a willingness to switch sides for the right price. This move left Netanyahu without the support of a key bloc and strengthened Eisenkot's position in the eyes of other parties.

Analysts had predicted a tighter race before Thursday's developments. They estimated Eisenkot would secure 56 recommendations while Netanyahu would gather 53. That narrow gap would have likely resulted in Eisenkot getting the nod, but it would have suggested a political stalemate. The current 67-46 tally provides Eisenkot with a stronger mandate to pursue a government that excludes Likud.

The actual math for forming a stable coalition is less clear. Only 48 lawmakers are prepared to ally with Eisenkot without conditions. This number is five fewer than the size of Netanyahu's bloc, which includes United Torah Judaism. Neither the Joint List nor United Torah Judaism has confirmed it will support an Eisenkot-led government. The 67-46 count is therefore a theoretical figure rather than a reflection of immediate political reality.

Yashar MK Shaul Meridor told President Herzog that the public told the October 7 government to go home. The president attempted to broach the topic of a unity deal that would include sharing power with Netanyahu and his 27-seat Likud faction. Meridor's response signaled that Eisenkot's allies prefer a full-on regime change over a compromise arrangement.

Eisenkot faces specific hurdles in building a majority. The hawkish, right-wing Yisrael Beytenu has ruled out a coalition that relies on support from Arab parties. Faction leader Avigdor Liberman has explicitly rejected such a scenario. Meanwhile, United Torah Judaism is at the forefront of the fight for Haredi military draft deferrals. This stance puts the party in diametric opposition to nearly everyone in the Eisenkot camp, with the exception of Ra'am.

Likud and its allies have launched a campaign since October 27 casting doubt on the Arab vote. This effort is likely a preview of the delegitimization campaign they may conduct against a minority government dependent on the outside support of the Joint List and Ra'am. An appeal to Jewish Zionist voters' emotional objections to Arab political power can prove a potent tool for Netanyahu to stymie Eisenkot's aspirations.

Eisenkot has less experience in coalition horse trading than Netanyahu. The prime minister has a reputation for finding solutions to complex political problems. Eisenkot has yet to show himself capable of similar maneuvering. He has only a few weeks until his presumed mandate expires. Figuring out how to grow the 48-figure support base without subtracting others will be his main challenge.